Peak oil by 2020

[MikeM]

Dunno if anyone else has seen this, but I thought I'd post.

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/12 ... st-a-date/

Looks like we could be in for some... interesting times ahead.

[Sally Jane]

Thanks for posting that - very interesting indeed.
As it says, "..now we have a date..." and it will be fascinating to see the government response to it over the next few years...

[MikeM]

Thanks for posting that - very interesting indeed.
As it says, "..now we have a date..." and it will be fascinating to see the government response to it over the next few years...

it will, tho I suspect it will involve a certain amount of running around like a headless chicken screaming ohmygod, ohmygod, ohmygod, ohmygod.

[Rosendula]

Peak oil by 2020? I thought we'd already reached it. At least that's what I was told by the local Green Party bloke 3 1/2 years ago.

[Turtuga Blanku]

I too had the understanding that we are already past that point (and probably way past!).

[The Riff-Raff Element]

Peak oil by 2020? I thought we'd already reached it. At least that's what I was told by the local Green Party bloke 3 1/2 years ago.

We have. Kind of.

It all depends what sort of oil you're talking about. If it is the generally blackish coloured, liquid stuff that is pumped out of the ground - which is what most people would recognise as oil - then, yes, we are probably past the peak and have exhausted more than half the reserves. But there remains the broad church of what are called non-conventional oils.

Now, some of these are extracted from conventional oil wells using unconventional methods: forming & breaking emulsions, steaming out oil, but this is small beer compared to the potential energy found in the tar sands and bitumens of places like Canada and Venezuela.

Some work is already done in these areas - google "syn crude" and you'll see what I mean. But the thing is, oil industry apologists and petrol heads incapable of accepting that the world will one day change have a tendency to hold these reserves up as being "the answer" when they most certainly are not. There are two points to worry about: one is the price of oil that will be necessary to make widespread explotation possible (and this is a matter of much debate, varies from site to site, but is probably around $150 per barrel). The other is that since the production of a barrel of synthetic crude oil from these sources can easily consume a further barrel just to provide the heat & steam, the reserves are not as big as they might first look.

And the above ignores the horrible environmental damage caused by mining tar sands and processing them.

But the 2020 date is as good a date as any for the time when production itself begins to tailoff with no clear prospect of ever rising again.

[Rosendula]

Wow Jon! I'm always pleased when you post, you give such intelligent answers yet somehow manage to write them in a way even I can understand . Thank you for clearing that up.

[Turtuga Blanku]

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/

[frozenthunderbolt]

Once again i would refer those interested in peak oil to:

http://www.theoildrum.com

It has excellent and well rounded investigation and debate about peak oil and alternative energies. In a manner that ranges from beginner to scientist/expert - articles are well written, well thought out and well referenced (mostly)!

[purplekat]

Anybody interested in what can be done about peak oil AND climate change should read 'The Transition Handbook'
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Transition-Hand ... 1900322188
it's the most inspiring book I've read and shows what can be done to make peak oil into an oppurtunity rather than all doom and gloom

or have a look on here
http://www.transitiontowns.org/

The idea is to make communities self reliant (sourcing as much as possible from the local area and trading with other communities for the rest)

[old tree man]

Dosen't that just go to prove that the governments around the globe are all the same , can you imagine the house of commons picture this, a load of overfed and slightly intoxicated mp's dozing off in the house when someone brings up the important issue of oil, a murmer goes around the house, HEAR HEAR HEAR, "what did he say" "don't know" "just say hear hear again someone is bound to bring it up again in a few years" "hear hear"
Need i say any more

Russ
Ps the only thing that the government are good for..........................................................................................no sorry can't think of anything !!!.