Ofgem sounds warning on energy supply security
Incentives for suppliers to invest in infrastructure are weak, says regulator
Tom Young, BusinessGreen, 03 Feb 2010
Energy security in doubt after 2015
The UK's energy supply faces a perfect storm of problems after 2015, and urgent action is needed to tackle the problems, according to a report published by Ofgem today.
The decline in indigenous gas reserves and the need to make demanding cuts in carbon emission levels while renewing infrastructure are serious threats to energy security, the regulator says.
"Our scenarios show supply to be relatively secure until around 2015," says the Ofgem report. "However, significant action will be called for to deliver both security of supply and environmental objectives at affordable prices longer term, given the nature and scale of challenges facing the market."
Large parts of the ageing energy infrastructure will need replacement by 2020 at an estimated cost of £200bn as a substantial proportion of the UK’s fleet of nuclear and coal power stations will be taken out of service over the next decade.
But incentives to do so are weak thanks to bad credit conditions, a low carbon price, interdependence with international markets and lack of consumer pressure for supply security and investment in peak energy supplies.
Ofgem does not consider current arrangements adequate and recommends the government examine various courses of action.
At the very least it recommends a minimum carbon price, improved price signals and measures to promote demand-side response, which should improve security of supply by increasing the incentives to make peak energy supplies available.
More drastically it asks the government to consider legal obligations on suppliers, a centralised renewables market and replacing the renewables obligation with renewables tenders.
Its most radical suggestion is making a single entity responsible for coordinating the procurement of new energy supplies.
The report points out that all have risks and benefits, and a combination of measures is likely to be the best solution.
"More mandated outcomes could reduce the cost of finance, reduce the risk of high prices resulting from under-investment, and remove some of the inefficiencies in current mechanisms such as the Renewables Obligation," says the report.
"However, such approaches may expose customers to risks of overinvestment, and deprive them of some of the benefits of innovation and cost reductions driven by more effective competitive markets."
Responding to the report, energy and climate change secretary Ed Miliband today agreed that a more interventionist policy would be needed.
"The scale and upfront nature of the low carbon investment needed is likely to require significant reform of our market arrangements to deliver security of supply in the most affordable way," he said.
"That is why my department began work last summer to plot out the pathways to a decarbonised, secure energy mix in 2050 and the options for reforming the market to deliver it. Ofgem’s report will contribute to the proposals we will make at the time of the Budget."
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of course the government will say all is well and there's noooooooo problem - but whadda you all think ? and more to the point what you going to do - sit on your hands and hope nothing happens - or take positive steps ?? - me i am going for the latter - so more solar panels in the offing - as i recon that this scenario makes a lot of sense
why - simple - we have massive immigration - increasing population ( partly because of previous ) - increased demand for power - and a LOT wasted - i was sitting looking along a row of shops today and the heat plumes issuing from them
all because they seem to want to keep the doors open for some reason - increased use of power for the Internet and other stuff - the fact that we COULD be cut off if other countries get tetchy or decide THEIR needs take precedence - and the likely hood of worsening winters ( i think we in for a run of them personally ) now i KNOW we are always getting these doom and gloom scenarios - but one day one of them IS going to come to fruit - and i have memories of the 70s when we had power cuts - and there where NOT all the modern things we need to run today - so personally this is one warning i think we NEED to take seriously
as when / IF the proverbial hits the fan - stuff like solar panels - batteries - etc will skyrocket in price - as people cash in on the crisis - mean while the poor will suffer as usual - and it will be too late to do any hand ringing then - but as usual we will muddle through i suppose
anyways views appreciated
so thank you to all those people with wonderful black humour and pragmatic viewpoints, you are helping me come to terms with a pretty hefty dose of grief. This too shall pass.