Selfsufficientish.com

it's going to affect all of us - how much do YOU reckon it'll go up by?

Maybe as much as 50%. I'm erring on the low side because we've reached a point where taking steps to cut consumption (replacing cars with more economic models, adding more insulation, installing solar, etc) becomes very quickly cost effective. That should start to cap consumption.

Oil going to $200 per bbl ( as Goldman Sachs have suggested, so I'd guess they'd be long because most of the time they can't trade their way out of a wet paper bag) I'd say is unlikely and probably not a good sign as it would sugget demand is holding up despite the hike in cost.

What I use, predominantly electricity and wood, hasn't gone up much in the last 3 years (before that I was unaware of how much they cost!). I am so pleased we had a wood burning stove installed and our electricity costs are low due to the special tariff we chose to go on. It could be a lot worse!

I'm amazed at some of the really low predictions..........heating oil for instance in the last 18 months has gone up by 92%.........
It's easy to under-estimate by looking at motor fuel costs because a large component of the price is tax, but something like heating oil shows the "real" escalating price.......

My prediction is at least 100%; even if oil prices themselves (crude) won't go up that much, the companies will find a way to raise them higher...

on a safe guess, at least 100 but, 200% wouldnt surprise me. It isnt heating costs that worry me. I mean come on, were lucky, we live in a country with an extremely mild climate. My bro-in-law has been living in the north of scotland with no heating whatsoever 4 the past ten years. If fuel rises much higher the price of food will be phenomenol. Pharmaceuticals will be more expensive, anything produced by machinery or is produced from by products of the oil industry will be vastly more expensive; namely pharmaceuticals, plastics and alot of basic building supplies even clothing. What about everything we import?

When you consider the entire education system 4 the past 50 years in most of the western world has been training our children, including myself, how to procure their basic needs through capitalist means and interdependence and barely any of them have a clue how to grow a carrot we've got big problems folks.

Martin wrote:I'm amazed at some of the really low predictions..........heating oil for instance in the last 18 months has gone up by 92%.........
It's easy to under-estimate by looking at motor fuel costs because a large component of the price is tax, but something like heating oil shows the "real" escalating price.......

The best cure for high prices is high prices.

People find alternatives and the time frame is about right.

All over the place I see solar panels going up: we're getting them and so are at least twenty other houses in the village. Virtually every new build is being heated with heat pumps. As we are nowhere near a gas main it is almost always LPG or heating oil that is being usurped.

I can't see prices going down, not for any sustained period, anyway: the combined control of OPEC and Russia over supplies is now far too strong. Forget the Western oil companies: they are bit players in comparison and have little or no influence over events - or prices - any longer.

Personally I think prices at this level or higher is quite a good thing. Might make the world at large challenge their dependence on hydrocarbon. It might also start to put the breaks on globalisation, which, again, I don't think would be a bad thing at all.

The Riff-Raff Element wrote:

Martin wrote:I'm amazed at some of the really low predictions..........heating oil for instance in the last 18 months has gone up by 92%.........
It's easy to under-estimate by looking at motor fuel costs because a large component of the price is tax, but something like heating oil shows the "real" escalating price.......

The best cure for high prices is high prices.

People find alternatives and the time frame is about right.

All over the place I see solar panels going up: we're getting them and so are at least twenty other houses in the village. Virtually every new build is being heated with heat pumps. As we are nowhere near a gas main it is almost always LPG or heating oil that is being usurped.

I can't see prices going down, not for any sustained period, anyway: the combined control of OPEC and Russia over supplies is now far too strong. Forget the Western oil companies: they are bit players in comparison and have little or no influence over events - or prices - any longer.

Personally I think prices at this level or higher is quite a good thing. Might make the world at large challenge their dependence on hydrocarbon. It might also start to put the breaks on globalisation, which, again, I don't think would be a bad thing at all.

Actually you have hit the nail on the head. I bought a 1968 Jaguar MKii a couple of years ago as a restoration project. I had planned to spend around £15k on restoring it and taking another 5 years to do it but the thought of only getting 20 mpg in five years time is making me shudder. I actually think that I will not be able to drive the dammed thing so why spend the hard earned money over such a sustained period just to look at it in the garage.

I reckon it's time to ditch it and cut my losses.

I have just ordered heating oil today. Looking back through my folder, here's some prices:

May 2004: 19.47ppl
Jan 2006: 34.50ppl
Today: 62.50ppl

Now thats a 321% increase in 4 years.

So on that basis, oil could be £2 a litre in another 4 years. Why oh why did we put in an oil Rayburn in 2004?

I know this is a bit cheeky but if you want to look at saving some money on your phone bills, gas and electric bills, broad band and mobiles take a look at www.myfunlife.co.uk. Hope you don't mind my adding this here






Try hard mean well and never give up

That might help some folk who are in a tight spot just now - but really, I'm more interested in saving energy than saving money.

I'm more interested in saving energy than saving money

.

Me too, I'm going to spend the night in the chair.


Tony

ajstone wrote:

I'm more interested in saving energy than saving money

.

Me too, I'm going to spend the night in the chair.


Tony

Don't forget to turn off the PC, though!

Well - demand is still rising, isn't it? So I suppose the rise in production will only just cover that. Whatever they do, the more they raise production, the sooner they'll run out.