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According to an Oxfam report discussed by the BBC today, food prices could double by 2030. The main causes seem to be climate change, spiralling food prices and lack of land. Looks like there's never been a better time to try and grow our own food!

They´ll double.....partly because the consumer will let it happen!

I agree that climate change, population growth will affect this ( and other costs) as will natural inflation, but if the retailers think they can get away with it, then they will.

Lack of land? ... well Im not so sure about that. yes maybe for large intensive farming( and therefore profits)...........
but if I look out of my windows, I can see thousands of acres, now mainly abandoned, as simply not cost effective to farm
commercially (main reason anyway) but plenty of land to use to grow enough food on! ( or raise livestock)

MeganW wrote:Looks like there's never been a better time to try and grow our own food!

Most definitely, and to try to be as self sufficient as you can with food crops.
Also having killer cucumbers on the prowl is another very good reason.
But then we don't really need any extra reasons, do we ? (preaching to the converted ?)

Yes Odsox I think you're right. I know it's expensive, but if every country returned to mainly providing for itself where possible, as we once did many years ago, things would be far more straightforward in the long run. As a nation we'd probably be poorer, but far more self-supporting. I know that this is massively over-simplifying things, but the current way of importing everything doesn't exactly seem to be working out!

I think the recent food price increases are largely due to brokers speculating on the futures market of commodities such as soya, wheat and rice. The resultant price increase pushes up the price of meat and affects the whole market. The futures market is going bananass as demand on these commodities is quickly outstripping supply.

The fact we're approaching the very steep part of the human population curve only exacerbates matters. I was listening to a program on the radio the other day broadcast from a world food market in Chicago and the word there is that we'll reach peak food in 2025.

locum76 wrote: and the word there is that we'll reach peak food in 2025.

Is that production or prices ? or both?

production, the price will continue to go up after we have reached peak production.

Yes, in 20 years time, prices will have doubled. And incomes will have remained static? I think not. So, although it's a good scarey headline for the media, all is not what it appears at first glance.

Mike

No, of course incomes won't have stayed static but I doubt that both cost and income will have doubled in equal measures. There's no way of knowing whether this report has taken that into account too - it may have done.

MKG wrote:Yes, in 20 years time, prices will have doubled. And incomes will have remained static? I think not.

I think that may depend on which country you live in Mike.
Not sure that Bangladesh residents will have doubled their income in 20 years, for instance.

Edit to say that I bet my own income will be pretty static, can't see them doubling the OA pension any time soon.

I however, as an organic market gardener, will be quids in. bwah, hah, hah, ha. :)

Oh, I agree with everything you're saying - merely pointing out that newspaper headlines are, as per normal, never the whole story. Just a mantra I keep reciting to myself.

Mike

And has this study , taken into account the effect on world population growth?

Curently 7 billion, some studies estimate it could grow to as much as 10 billion by 2050. so if food production peaks in 2025.....
what happens then?

Do all the countries currently suffering from severe obesity, slim down? or just more and worse starvation in the Third World? The latter I suspect....., and obesity will probably rise even more, as the cheaper "foods" tend to be the less healthy, sugar laden ones!

Another factor.... taken into account or not?

Crude oil "running out"......... , whether it does or not, the prices will sky rocket, thereby affecting food prices, but aslo availability, as many things just wont be worth transporting half way round the world,
and with more crops grown for bio diesel. less food sill and yet higher prices!

we certainly noticed a sharp and sudden increase in all food prices about 4 or 5 years ago, when there was a big push here on bio diesel, and loads of farmers put their land overto suitable crops for bio diesel. however, to date, havent seen much of that available at the pumps! ( well none round here at all! )

It's not just biodiesel but biofuels such as Willow for electricity generators that farmers are growing.

I seem to remember reading somewhere that the western world wastes enough food each year to feed the rest of the world. So in theory, we could all slim down and that might go some way towards balancing out population growth - but easier said than done!