petrol prices etc

[boboff]

Well, that sums it all up for me.

We are talking the end of the world, and we are worried about a sweat word. ( I now expect a curt well if you don't like it don't post reply with tutting smiley)

OJ & BA have defended their need for cars due to disability and location.
Gregg has never had a car, and has worked really hard to overcome this, and is rightly in a good position to argue it IS possible to live without one.
We look back to the past local system of tied cottages.
We have all failed to acknowledge that what has changed in that time is a MASSIVE INCREASE in the standard of living for all.
That quality of life, increased life expectancy combined with globalisation and the massive demands now eminating from China, India and others is what is driving up the fuel price so exponentially. This demand is so big, and is growing really fast. However there demand is only paid for by the exports we buy in the Western World, those cheap items which we like.
However, just as you can't expect someone in the UK not to buy new things, you can't stop the rise in the Global Stantard of living.
The "new world" will have to involve less consumption on out part, but it won't solve the problem. Based on GDP the average Chinese person still only generates, and therefore "consumes" less than 10% of that of someone in the USA or UK.

I have to be optimistic. My basic needs of shelter and food I can meet locally if I have to, much of my consumption is through choice, none of it matters really. What does is a happy and healthy family, and that is not dependant on the price of fuel. It just isn't, happiness and contentment comes from wanting what you have, not having what you want. The we are all doomed, there are people starving in Africa, don't swear, wow did you see those plants for a pound, all go round in a circle or choice and consumption, and differing opinion as to whether we reduce choice, consumption or both, or do we just each make a effort to make a small change every day of our lives, live the dream, be happy, consume less, enjoy the fact we are alive, be gratefull that we have a car, that we can get to the shops if we choose to, if we have to do it less becuase it costs more, it's not the end of the world, and resenting it is not going to change anything.

[Big Al]

....... I'll be getting banned soon Boboff cos I started this one off again........

[MKG]

... or do we just each make a effort to make a small change every day of our lives, live the dream, be happy, consume less, enjoy the fact we are alive, be gratefull that we have a car, that we can get to the shops if we choose to, if we have to do it less becuase it costs more, it's not the end of the world, and resenting it is not going to change anything.

Eloquent, succinct, brilliant.

Well said, boboff. Three lines which get right to the heart of the whole thing.

Mike

[Green Aura]

I've kept out of this - because I'm just as likely to use the F word and you should see how MMM tells us off behind the scenes (just joking M! ).

It seems to me is that this whole thing refers back to the basic premise behind Ish. We all know all's not right with the world but we do what we can within our given circumstances without beating ourselves up, or anyone else, for not being able to do more.

[oldjerry]

Serves you right......

Boboff , I agree with nearly all that.The problem has been the SUDDEN rise in fuel prices causing immediate probs.
At the risk of repeating myself(though when's it ever bothered me before?) I'm pretty certain that change in rural areas caused by dwindling fossil fuels wont be the idyllic self sustaining scenario we might wish for,but increasing embourgeoisement (my word of the week) of the country side.

[greenorelse]

I'm pretty certain that change in rural areas caused by dwindling fossil fuels wont be the idyllic self sustaining scenario we might wish for

+1

[MKG]

I just did a bit of Google research - and I was surprised by a few figures ...

In 2001, the USA, Japan and China (in that order) together consumed far more oil than any ten other countries. By 2007, China had swapped places with Japan. No great surprise there.

In 2001, the UK consumed 1,710,000 barrels of oil and lay 12th in the consumers' table. In 2007, the UK was 14th in the table, having been overtaken by Canada and Mexico, which was a bit of a surprise. The UK consumption had risen to 1,763,000 barrels - a far smaller rise than I had expected.

I haven't sat down and calculated the real import, if any, of those figures. I was just heartened to discover that the UK is not the leading offender in the oil stakes and its relative performance is improving. Perhaps there's hope yet.

Mike

[boboff]

OIl & Petrol is a commodity. What we have seen in the last 3 years is Oil move from $110 a barrel to $30 and back up to $110.

This sort of change is common in all commodity pricing, Sunflower Oil, Olive Oil, Vanilla Pods, Orange pulp, Flour, Pecan nuts, etc etc, they all fluctuate madly. I used to contract allot of these things and something like Number 3 dried Apricots move from £400 a tonne up to as much as £4000 a tonne, which when you are trying to cost for Supermarkets can make a great deal of difference.

Put into the mix the weakening of Sterling over the period and Oil prices have risen even more.

However I would argue that it is not SUDDEN. I firmly believe that history will show that the so called credit crunch recession we have just been through was caused by the high oil price. We all saw fuel costs souring and stopped spending money, that meant businesses did badly, and the "bubble" of bad lending was burst. This reduced demand globally, and oil prices dropped. But the trend of oil pricing is massively up, what we were paying 3 years ago, and what we are paying today is roughly 8% per annum more. That in a period of stagnating wages etc is hard, but it is not SUDDEN. With forecast growth in Chinese economic demand at 30% per annum, is it any wonder that this upward trend will continue.

As for this idea that things will somehow be idyllic when we move forward to the good old days, no you are right. I didn't say it would be, but it will be different, but then again thats the nature of change.

So, I have now taken to arguing as to whether a change in fuel price has been sudden or not! I do admit that it is all about perspective, and your own personal situation. There are some months I don't leave the Parish, and as such I am not a big user of fuel. I spend maybe £80 a month on fuel, and the £2.50 a week change over last year have not had an impact, I do however now encourage my wife to drive long distances, as she pays for her own fuel!

[greenorelse]

I haven't sat down and calculated the real import, if any, of those figures. I was just heartened to discover that the UK is not the leading offender in the oil stakes and its relative performance is improving. Perhaps there's hope yet.

Mike

Bear in mind figures from a per capita angle. China's consumption is rising, yes. But imagine if all of them used approaching the amount Brits use, let alone Yanks...

[Green Aura]

In 2001, the UK consumed 1,710,000 barrels of oil and lay 12th in the consumers' table. In 2007, the UK was 14th in the table, having been overtaken by Canada and Mexico, which was a bit of a surprise. The UK consumption had risen to 1,763,000 barrels - a far smaller rise than I had expected.

Probably due to the decimation of the UK manufacturing base and rural economy in conjunction with the higher standard of living brought about by the unsustainable finance-based economy that led to 2 and 3 car families, out of town shopping, increased food miles, over-reliance on the internal combustion engine and increased gentrification of the countryside and ghetto-isation of urban areas, hoodies and the Daily Mail - I would imagine.

I'll get my coat.

[MKG]

Oh c'mon, GA - you forgot post-Thatcherite economics, the waning influence of the moon on terrestrial tidal events, and the debris of the Age of Aquarius. How could you?

Mike

[gregorach]

I haven't sat down and calculated the real import, if any, of those figures. I was just heartened to discover that the UK is not the leading offender in the oil stakes and its relative performance is improving. Perhaps there's hope yet.

if you look at it in per-capita terms, we're only #62... (And China is #144.)

I've never understood why we talk about the energy consumption of whole countries like they are single, directly comparable entities. "China" is 1.3 billion people - that's about one-fifth of the entire population of the world - whereas the US is only 300 million people, or a bit less than one-twentieth of the entire population of the world.

[boboff]

Don't forget those Bloody Imigrants, coming over here taking our jobs and using our Health Service, health & Safety gone mad it is, Bloody PC brigade, Teenage pregnancies, single Mums, Benefit Broken Britain & Jeremy Kyle.......

[MKG]

Thanks for that listing, Dunc - that's made my eyebrows shoot up above my hairline.

Mike

[Millymollymandy]

I've kept out of this - because I'm just as likely to use the F word and you should see how MMM tells us off behind the scenes (just joking M! ).

You should see me swearing at her behind the scenes too! It's just not for this forum where children look in too and was agreed by the admins here long before any of you joined actually.