Bird Flu Update.

[Jessica]

Hi,
Outbreak in Turkey and effords to prevent spread in the Balkans.
Confirmed cases and on going tests in Turkey also more reports in last few days in China.
Lets hope it does not get here.

jessie

[ina]

Heard on the radio this morning, swans in Germany (island in the Baltic sea) and Austria have it, too.

Definitely getting closer!

[Wombat]

Ewww, not good!

http://fluwikie.com/annex/WoodsonMonograph.htm

This is not strictly self sufficientish perhaps, but may be of use anyway.

Nev

[ina]

Thanks, Nev - I think I need a sleepless night to get through all that...

[Millymollymandy]

Well we are supposed to keep our poultry inside now in France. I don't know how long for and it really isn't practicable or fair on the hens, and if it goes on indefinitely they would die of the heat in the shed. Anyway until I get any official notification (didn't last time) mine will still be going out as per normal, like most other people's chickens do round here! It's not like tens of thousands of people have died like they predicted, is it?

[Goodlife1970]

Hi MMM,Im confused as to what the Authorities mean by "inside" as Im sure in the UK (I may be wrong on this but I got it off the Net) it means "confined within a covered run" but had originally taken this to mean literally inside a shed. I read the other day that peanut allergies (from which I suffer) have killed more people pro rata than Avine Flu,although obviously awful for the families concerned,and from an environmental point of view, Im not sure that the situation demands as much panic from the press that it seems to be getting.

[Millymollymandy]

I don't know either about the 'covered run' - there is a lot of speculation on the web and most people seem to think it means totally covered roof but sides, with some kind of mesh or netting for ventilation but not big enough to allow the smallest wild bird (i.e. Goldcrest!) through!

The official French stance was inside, and if not possible inside, then "other measures" would be applicable. Huh? !!

I'm now very confused as to whether we are trying to protect our poultry from getting bird flu from the wild birds, or locking them away because they might give it to the wild birds, or to us, or? and what about me feeding the wild birds and the wild bird poo on the logs I'm bringing in to put on the fire ..... what is more risky???? It all does my head in!

[Wombat]

Thanks, Nev - I think I need a sleepless night to get through all that...

Yeah, it is a bi like that - the sort of stuff you hope never to need, but just in case..............

Nev

[ina]

News today - initial tests on a duck (I think) in France showed a H5 strain of the virus - more tests will show if it's the H5N1.

As far as I understand, keeping the hens locked up (which ever way) is meant to protect them from infection through wild birds (which would be most likely when feeding together, as wild birds often share the feed of domestic birds); then, protect humans from infection through their hens, and eventually make a mutation of the virus into a strain that can jump from human to other humans more difficult. The more humans are infected, the higher is the likelihood of that particular type developing.

[hedgewizard]

*puts on professional hat*

The point is that H5N1 will probably acquire human flu envelope proteins whenever somebody already infected with regular flu catches it. That will turn it into a completely new flu strain, something that happens about once every 50 years. Here in the UK the government are planning for 50,000 excess deaths, but that's a guess based on the last two pandemics. Their contingency documents give statistics for up to 750,000 excess deaths... but they're not planning for that because they just can't.

So - it's probably going to happen somewhere, but keeping it out of the domestic fowl population greatly reduces the chance of it happening on your own doorstep. The further away it happens, the better your chances of getting your contingency plans up and running before it hits.

And the good news? Once the superflu actually happens, the restrictions on fowl housing are pointless. Allow 2-5 years for governments to work that out, though, because it's not written into their protocols.

*takes off professional hat*
Best get some tissues in, then!

[ina]

So which profession does that hat belong to? Medical? Biosciences? At least you seem to know what you are talking about...

There seem to be an awful lot of bugs going round at the moemnt - everybody seems to either have the flu, or the "24-hour-bug" (i.e. 24 hours on the loo), or chicken pox, or something else... Or somebody in the family has it. I also fear that in a weakened population like that it's much more likely that a "new" virus takes hold and spreads around. So, I am trying to keep myself as healthy as possible!

[Chickenlady]

Mine have been confined to their run, which is now covered with plastic sheeting, for about 3 months. I feel rotten I can't let them run round the garden, but I would feel worse if they caught avian flu from wild birds and passed it onto my children.

If it gets much worse, they will go into the shed. Why take a chance?

I do not think that we should panic, but I think this is a scary situation nonetheless. You might think I am over-reacting, but I have a food store growing in my garage. If this turns into a flu pandemic, we will not be leaving the house for some time...

[hedgewizard]

Oh dear. I can sympathise, having two kids myself, but I have to burst your bubble.

*puts on professional hat*
I'm a pharmacist, and I've just completed a pandemic flu protocol which the local NHS is now studying. Think of me as an informed amateur.

Although the protocol is for local health services, I was motivated by wanting to find out how to protect my own family, natch. I was expecting to confine everyone to barracks for the duration, but it's just not practical and here's why.


XXXXX Pandemic Flu Policy

(1st draft)

It is extremely likely that a flu pandemic will occur at some point in the next two to three years. With global and national travel now commonplace, the pandemic is likely to reach severe proportions in the UK before an effective vaccine can be produced.

Recommendations

Prevention;

Vaccine uptake by staff as soon as the vaccine is ready is essential, even if the media are reporting a drop in cases.

Swab counter and worktops frequently using dettox or similar.

Swab telephones, keyboards and till keys at intervals, again using dettox or similar.

Wash hands at intervals, especially after any direct patient contact.

Staff should bring distinctive mugs from home for their personal use.

When flu is reported by staff members;

Staff sharing between venues should be avoided once a single case is confirmed in either locale.

Stay at home at the first sign of illness.

Seek treatment with tamiflu within the first 48 hours.

Do not return to work for at least 6 days, even if feeling capable of working.



About influenza

Flu is transmitted from one individual to another by droplets expressed when coughing, sneezing, and even talking. These droplets can then be inhaled by others, or can settle on surfaces and then picked up by touch and transferred to eye, nose or mouth. Two thirds of cases are contracted in this indirect manner.

Flu viruses vary in terms of how contagious they are and how severe they are. In adults the incubation period (time from infection to first symptoms) can be from 1 to 3 three days, and the infection can be passed on from the first appearance of symptoms until 4 or 5 days later. Children (and some adults) are infectious before their symptoms appear.

Unlike the common cold, flu is a serious infection. Sufferers invariably take to bed for several days, and secondary infections including bronchitis and pneumonia are common and occasionally fatal. The pandemic will occur in two or three "waves" each lasting around 12 weeks, and it is likely the second wave will be the worst. The time from first global case to pandemic UK infection is expected to take no more than six months and may be as swift as two months, and as the vaccine cannot be produced until after the first case is confirmed it will almost certainly not be ready in time for the first wave.

If you made it through that lot, well done! The upshot is that we could be looking at five months, start to finish (unless it turns out to be a Stephen King "Captain Trips" virus) so retreating to a bunker in the back garden isn't an option. Keeping kids at home may not be either, unless you want to home educate for the duration - quite honestly, I'd consider that myself if the virus turns out to be a bad one. The first wave will cause panic though, so a stock of food for a couple of weeks might not be a bad idea to get over the inevitable panic buying phase. Once that's over we should all stay away from large gatherings of people, and that includes T***o.

[ina]

Once that's over we should all stay away from large gatherings of people, and that includes T***o.

That might be the best side effect of the pandemic! Our local shop is brilliant, and even on busy days you can't really call that a large gathering...

So: Grow enough veg to keep you going through the year, and keep a stock of dry goods just in case. Sounds like what I'm trying to do anyway.

And keep taking that echinacea...

[hedgewizard]

OMG! I forgot to... *takes professional hat off*