Knock..Knock..whose there?....Armageddon.......

[oldjerry]

Had a conversation with a mate yesterday who's got a mixed farm at the bottom of the Hill(sells us oat \barley mix for the goats).They've always kept a good few beef animals feeding them cereal,fodder beet etc.But now the price of cereals is so high that it's not economical to keep the beef,and far better just to sell the cereal.
I know the poor Russian wheat harvest has contributed to this ,but the main reason is the rising demand for 'developed world' 'luxuries' (meat,bread etc)from China, and India.As these economies grow(and they must as the Western economies need them to)given that there's only so much land to grow cereal on,this aint going to change,(and surely the same must happen in Africa sooner or later,given their reserves of oil ,gas etc).I'm sure in 20yrs we'll look back at food prices in the same way as people now look back at UK property prices.
I look at my kids sometimes,and it scares the crap out of me.I cant be doing with all this fox news- inspired survivalist rubbish, but I cant see a future for them and their kids beyond self reliance,growing as much of your own as poss,and much neighbour-co-operation .( and to be honest,given the vested interests,that seems a longshot)I'm getting old and tired,I cant protect them for ever.
At least then when The Daily Lie comes up with ''Shopping at Adsainsco is cheaper than The Goodlife'' EVERYBODY will know it's a crock of ----.

[The Riff-Raff Element]

I hear what you're saying. I can't be doing with all the survivalist crap either, but I believe it to be prudent to become a little more self reliant. Certainly I'll be investing a little more in my domoculture next year - upgrading the irrigation and buying some piggies for example.

I suspect what will happen is that meat prices will rise because - and I'll mention that I am an avowed carnivore - feeding cereals and vegetable protien to livestock is a pretty inefficient way to produce food. This could spell the end of the £1,99 oven ready chicken and people would have to modify their diets to include less meat, but I don't think that it necessarily would mean we face food shortages.

I don't have figures to support this, but I suspect that vastly more cereal and vegetable protien is fed to livestock than enters the human food chain directly, certainly in the West.

The world should be able to feed itself, if the will is there.

What scares the bejesus out of me is the contining sticking of fingers in ears and singing "lalala" that is going with respect to energy consumption - my background before I sobered up and dropped out of it was petroleum refinging economics and oil trading.

There is no plan.

Sure, there is some tickling around with renewables and addressing conservation issues, but it doesn't even touch the sides.

And as for handing over control of Europe's short term energy security to the Russians...

[Rosendula]

I get scared for my kids too. I think during their adulthood there will come a time when 'food' has become such a ridiculously complicated and costly affair that they won't be able to afford to buy much, so their only option will be to grow it. So far, only my 4YO has shown an interest in this. (The eldest are 17 and 18YO, and when they were little we had no garden and no allotment and I still believed I couldn't cook, so food came from supermarkets for us back then). I'm hoping that the eldest two will have picked up enough passive knowledge to give them the confidence to start growing their own, and that the youngest will be able to help them fill the gaps in that knowledge. As for land, well we don't own any and can't afford to buy any, but I have 2 allotments of which they will inherit the tenancy agreement, and I have books about foraging which, if it does come to it, will help them out. On top of that, I keep a diary of what I've done and when, and notes about success/ideas for improvement, plus printed records of recipes and other things I've learned from the 'net (in case computers aren't a part of the distant future). The future may look bleak, but that's in comparison to the luxurious life-styles that is the norm in our cultures in the present day. Those children who grow up equiped with the knowledge of how to live without those luxuries will grow to have a much more comfortable life than the majority.

[123sologne]

Things certainly need to change, but as far as I am concerned the one most important thing to change is the utterly shameful waste of the West. Get rid of the sell by date and past date on all fruits and vegs and you will end up with a staggering amount of food available and not wasted, food that is perfectly eatable! You do not need this labeling for these type of food as it is obvious when they are past date/rotten. And if it is not obvious enough for some, it would soon become obvious when they have a taste...

[frozenthunderbolt]

2nded allround for about the last 4 years, and im 23.

[Big Al]

Well I'm scared shitless many a night about the way things are going. My wife and I have one son and he has no interest in growing food but at 21 his remedy for the idea of armagedon is to have a good party, kiss your arse good bye and top himself!!


I on the other hand am into the survivalist game. not like the americans but I do have 3 bob.s ready and also two in the car. I stockpile food and water and grow as much as we can but as I'm a bit of a spacka I rely a lot on my wife who "indulges my whims".

One of my sons friends asked if he could see my bunker under the house and he was deadly serious. When I told him there wasn't one he said. " ok your secret is safe with me but can I see it soon?"
The future isn't going to be bright or orange but dark and dismal but what we learn on here will make us better people until the tim e comes and valuable people after the time comes.
As for your concerns old jerry just take one day at a time and loook on the bright side.

[okra]

I have no doubt that food prices will continue to rise, up to the 1950s families would on average spend somewhere between 20% and 25% of their income on food and the current average of about 10% is very low. The world population is increasing, land is being lost, water is in greater and greater demand and climate change will takes its toll. I can only see rise in prices back to the levels in the 1950s.

[oldjerry]

Thanks to you all,at least I'm not alone.Maybe ageing parenthood and innocent ,hopeful little faces are making me a bit hyper.Maybe not.I do feel thatmuch as we recycle,grow,campain etc as much as poss (and always will) the bottom line is in the same way as I cant do much about the situation viz inequality,poverty ,homelessness etc, I hate to say it,but I cant see the enviromental challenge turning out the way I'd like it either.(And many of you thoughtful people will probably make connections between the two)
I'm not in a 'Jonestown' frame of mind,but I 'm begining to think the time for persuasion and waiting for joe public to 'come round' is gone, you're either in or you're out.

[boboff]

Well we carry the result of cheap food around our waists. You don't see many Fat Communists!

Surely the Gym is a crime of wasted effort? Get fit sweeping up or weeding my garden?

Developments in the last 100 years have been so massive, who knows where we will be in the future.

Haven't we always worried about what the future will bring for our children? It's not to say that we are "special" in that regard. Every generation has it's armageddon, remember when we all thought that the world would be nuked out of excistence?

Being "Ish" is all about future proofing as much as we can.

With life expectancy now double what it was 100 years ago, surely the easiest way to save fuel and money is to just let the old folks wander off into the cold winter night?????(joke)

[oldfella]

OJ, the basic reason I jacked it all in back in the eighties and moved to France was for I was thinking at that time, the very same thoughts that you express, but I wonder as I look at my grandchildren if they can make it through their allotted time.
I lived through a War that with weapons that compared today's, were mere toys, but bought death and destruction, over a vast mount of our world, and killed millions.
When I look at my grandchildren I cry in frustration, because I know that history has taught us nothing and the Human race will continue down this road.
I have done my best to give them the only thing I could, land to grow the basics, space to keep livestock, I have dug a well for water, and have trees for fires, and live far away from important Towns.
Is this enough? I don't know I can only hope.

Sorry about the gloom and doom, but these thoughts have been with me for many years.

Eddy

[oldjerry]

Thanks Eddy,
Starting up this thread(and I think it should perhaps stop now) may have made me feel a bit less isolated,but clearly it drags up loads of stuff that should stay buried it's just impondereable.

thanks to all of you. Jerry.

[gregorach]

Armageddon seems unlikely, but change seems inevitable. Someone once said to me "It's easier for people these days to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism"... It's going to be tough all right, but it probably won't be as tough for the likes of us as it already is for much of the rest of the world, and they mostly seem to get by one way or another.

[oldjerry]

Well I guess so,but rural life in most of Africa,India/Pakistan/Bangladesh,China,etc. with the corruption,starvation,random land expropriation,totalitarianism,et.al,seems pretty close to armageddon to me.

[gregorach]

I'm pretty sure you'd feel differently if you were actually staring death in the face. Lots of things that look really bad from the comfort of your armchair turn out to be not nearly so bad after all when the last alternative comes knocking.

[contadina]

We sold up and "downsized" so we could live off the land and learn new skills for a more simple life. We didn't do it for any WTSHTF type of reasons, but more of a realisation that Western consumer lifestyle is unsustainable.

But, put away your doomer tin hats everyone. Humans are the most adaptable species on the planet, so we need to adapt. Better to learn the skills to feed and care for yourself and your family rather than taking on a bunker mentality and stockpiling stuff bought in the shops.